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Friday Oct 13, 2006

Nasdaq near five-year highs

Taipan Group's Dynamic Market Alert

By J. Christoph Amberger

-- Nasdaq near five-year highs
-- Energy’s Attraction

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Nasdaq near five-year highs

by J. Christoph Amberger

Snow instead of Indian summer in upstate New York... Frost on the lawns in the mid-Atlantic region. When I picked up the newspaper from my driveway this morning, I felt transported back into the mid-1970s, when scientific and media consensus had coagulated the dire warning that a new ice age was getting ready to lock up the French Riviera under a towering sheet of blue ice.

Things are indeed changing -- especially in the media. Have you noticed they now like to use “climate change” instead of “global warming”?

Maybe that turn of phrase requires less commitment. After all, if you’re just predicting change, you’re pretty much right as long as things don’t stay the same.

My children, however, appeared to be placing their bets on global warming: Notwithstanding paternal exhortations that they should put on long pants and sweatshirts, they piled into the car wearing shorts, t-shirts and a very short skirt.

-- While the Dow remained subdued today, the Nasdaq was steadily moving toward fresh five-year highs. The media talking heads called GE earnings “uninspiring”… go figure.
 
Indeed, most commentators thus far have missed that the index is now at levels we haven’t seen since early 2001 -- and has just about doubled since hitting its lows four years ago.

When we’re looking at the recovery in U.S. equities, all-time highs (or the lack thereof in certain indices) may be an incomplete gauge to measure the strength of the upward trend. Post-low highs are far more telling!

Energy’s Attraction

by Steven Lord

In spite of the drubbing stocks in the energy sector have taken over the past several months, we think it is crucial that investors understand how much it will eventually pay to hold and/or buy integrated oil and oil-service stocks. Why? Because in spite of oil falling from the mid-$70s per barrel to just over $59 today, nothing in the strategic picture has changed one bit. And yet some of the more leveraged oil plays have just been crushed. This, as they say, is an opportunity.

Just about the only good news for oil since the summer has been a much less active hurricane season than originally feared -- which itself was merely a testament to Wall Street’s short-term memory fixation rather than any structural or long-term improvement in the oil market. It’s so Wall Street: Last year was a terrible hurricane season so that means this year must be a terrible hurricane season. Nature doesn’t work that way. This summer may have been better than “expected,” but one thing we can all take to the bank is that hurricanes will hit the Gulf again.

And the demand issues remain. We are not getting any more oil out of the ground, yet more and more people around the world are demanding it. And a lot of it, too: An article in today’s Wall Street Journal, buried on page A3, is headlined “China’s Oil Imports Surge Amid Relentless Demand,” a bullish statement for oil no matter how you cut it. The article goes on to say China imported a record amount of crude last month, a whopping 24% more than in September 2005, and 2.4% more than the previous record set in January.

Think about that for a minute... at that rate China’s oil imports more than double every three years.

Meanwhile, the difference between global production and consumption still remains roughly 1.5 million barrels -- a pitifully narrow margin when one takes the likes of Iran, a nuclear North Korea and Iraq into account. Oh, and in case you missed it, Buffalo was socked with two feet of snow this morning, and New York City woke up to a sunny 34 degrees. It’s that time of year again...

The bottom line is that the overall, strategic picture for oil, and thus energy stocks, remains one of rising demand and static (at best) supply. All those Chinese and Indians clamoring for vehicles are not going to go back to riding bikes, and we don’t think the overall global economy will slow enough to meaningfully dent global oil demand for more than a quarter or two (if at all). Finally, OPEC has greatly enjoyed the last few years and we would be very surprised if they allowed oil to dip much lower than the mid-$50s.

This means prices will remain robust, which, in turn, means that profits at integrated and oil-service stocks will be high. All other things being equal, this should mean higher stock prices for energy-related firms.

And right now, they are Cheap with a capital “C” -- Wall Street has sold them off with abandon as oil has corrected, and in many cases, far in excess of oil’s actual drop. For some, earnings are going to double or more between this year and next, and that is regardless of whether oil is at $55 or $75. Note that the leverage in the service sector -- the drillers, technology firms, etc. -- is higher than in those companies pulling the stuff out of the ground. The November issue of Trend Investor will go over the specific stocks to consider in detail.

If you don’t have any energy exposure, we suggest you get some. If you already have energy stocks in your portfolio, and you’ve suffered through the past several weeks, take heart -- the bull market in energy stocks is far from over.

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Earnings Announcements Monday, October 16, 2006

Cogeco Cable Inc, Eaton Corporation, LaBranche & Company Inc, Mattel Inc, Sonic Corporation, Stanley Furniture, and Wachovia Corporation are releasing earnings.
 
Brought to you by http://www.AmericanCapitalist.net

 

Unlock Dates for October 2006
10/23/06 – Corel Corporation is unlocking 6.5 million shares.
10/31/06 – Delek US Holdings is unlocking 10 million shares.

Brought to you by http://www.vixtrader.com

 

Upgrades and Downgrades

Altera downgraded by Bear Stearns from Outperform to Peer Perform.

Constellation Brands downgraded by Matrix Research from Buy to Hold.

Credit Suisse downgraded by Deutsche Securities from Buy to Hold.

Jacuzzi Brands downgraded by Jefferies & Company from Buy to Hold.

JAKKS Pacific downgraded by Wedbush Morgan from Buy to Hold.

Massey Energy downgraded by Citigroup from Hold to Sell.

Overland Storage downgraded by RBC Capital Markets from Outperform to Sector Perform.

Wendy’s downgraded by UBS from Buy to Neutral.

Yahoo! downgraded by Thomas Weisel from Outperform to Peer Perform.

Yum! Brands downgraded by JP Morgan (from Overweight to Neutral) and by UBS (from Buy to Neutral).

Sony upgraded by Morgan Stanley from Equal Weight to Overweight.

Brought to you by http://www.gressor.com

 

Quote of the Day:

“John Kerry says he is serious about running again in 2008. He’s already practicing his concession speech.”

- Conan O’Brien, Oct. 11, 2006

 

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