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Friday Oct 27, 2006

Seven Questions: Putting Material Profits’ S.R. Nunnally on the Spot

Taipan Group's Dynamic Market Alert

By J. Christoph Amberger

-- Seven Questions: Putting Material Profits’ S.R. Nunnally on the Spot
-- The News That Isn’t News

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Seven Questions: Putting Material Profits’ S.R. Nunnally on the Spot

by J. Christoph Amberger

S.R. Nunnally, editor of Material Profits, is a favorite guest on national business shows, like Forbes on Fox and Cavuto on Business. Since she started her newsletter earlier this year, she has been able to turn her readers on to some great companies for nice, steady, conservative gains.

But when it comes to analysis, she is anything but conservative. Trained by Adam Lass and Bryan Bottarelli in the intricacies of pattern analysis, she is an analyst who’s tired of keeping her mouth shut.

“I come across prime opportunities in natural resources for investors every month that require an investor who likes risk,” she says. “I’ve had to hold my tongue because my newsletter has been so conservative, but there is amazing profit potential in these small, what I call ‘wildcatter’ commodity-based companies.”

I talked to S.R. Nunnally yesterday, right before shooting “Amberger’s Smackdown,” on which she was my featured guest.

Christoph Amberger: You mention “wildcatter” commodities companies. But aren’t commodities dead? The bubble burst, the good times over...

S.R. Nunnally: Not buy a long shot… Take a look at any crude oil chart, and you’ll clearly see an unbroken uptrend since 1998. The same goes for natural gas back to 1973. Are there corrections in these commodities? Of course, they are natural fluctuations. The point is, commodities are always going to be in demand, be it steel, grain, gold or oil. Energy commodities in particular will remain sensitive to demand dynamics, and that gives investors wonderful opportunities to make money.

CA:  How so?

SRN:  I have a new service out in which I am recommending small resource companies, like U.S. Gold Corp., that I had to keep quiet on before. There are lots of them out there, especially with commodities still in the limelight. They’re hidden behind the big companies like Exxon Mobil with its $10 billion in profits. I usually come across a new one of these “wildcatters” about once a month. With my new service, I can finally share them with investors.

CA: Why couldn’t you do so before?

SRN: These small- and micro-cap stocks are very sensitive to volume. That’s why I couldn’t recommend these small companies to the large Material Profits subscribership. Any large uptick in volume can move the stock price out of range very fast. The opportunity would disappear in a heartbeat. To preserve the potential in these “wildcatters,” I’ve limited this new service to only 500 people.

CA: How would you characterize these “wildcatters”?

SRN: In many ways it’s like getting in on Exxon Mobil back in 1975, except nowadays it’s possible to see huge gains in a much shorter period of time.

CA: In my experience you are better served with a pure play on a specific company. Do you have any of those?

SRN: Well, I certainly agree that pure plays on companies can serve investors much better, but I can’t let the “cat” out of the bag too soon, so to speak. I’m sure you understand. But I’ll tell you what… I recently gave my Material Profits subscribers a speculative recommendation as a bit of a test. That company was Paladin Resources, Ltd (PDN:ASX). PDN has gained 18% in the last three days. Annualize that! That’s how quickly these stocks can move.

CA: Do you have any you are keeping in your back pocket?

SRN: Yes, and it’ll stay there until I’m ready to release it to MP Wildcatter subscribers. What I can tell you is that this may just be the biggest energy buyout in recent history. I’m talking huge domestic resources that will hit the auction block, possibly in the next three months. Believe me, I can’t wait to let this “cat” out of the bag.

CA: Who was your favorite Beatle?

SRN: Well, I’m more of a Zeppelin fan, myself. The Beatles just don’t have enough edge for me.

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Keep your eyes open for the invitation to join MP Wildcatter this weekend. Or, you can get a sneak-peek now.

Click here for a sneak peek...

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-- U.S. GDP growth looks almost European. Economic growth in the third quarter came in at a seasonally adjusted 1.6% annual rate -- down from 2.6% growth in Q2.

Now, more often than not, the Commerce Department numbers tend to be upgraded within a month or so. But the obvious slowdown in economic expansion not only makes the case for the Fed to keep interest rates stable for the rest of this year -- if not a cut in early 2007.

Both cases are fundamentally bullish for stocks, especially given the momentum the Dow has exhibited since summer. Assets like to create self-fulfilling predictions: Once the books are closed on 2006 and the stock indices have racked up gains that exceed those of treasuries and CDs, money automatically starts flowing into the higher yielding asset.

That’s why I think we will see a level of 13,000 and up in the Dow before we see 10,000 again.

The clearest indication: Look at today’s trading in the Dow! The modest GDP growth was absorbed and digested before the hot dog vendors on Wall Street had gotten their first batch of knackwurst heated up for the early lunch crowd.

-- The new Taipan Financial News “Weekly Edition” is online now. This week, Sandy Franks puts the squeeze on Adam Lass, Todd Schoenberger and Andrew Snyder. Don’t miss it! Our guests have a better track record than most of the funny faces you see on CNBC!

The News That Isn’t News

by Steven Lord

Wall Street was all abuzz this morning regarding the “news” that GDP grew at the slowest pace in over three years last quarter. Economists, whose record of accurately predicting such things is generally less than stellar, expected growth of 2.6% and got 1.6% -- a big miss even for them.

Stock futures immediately turned lower and the market opened weaker, although it had clawed back to nearly even by midday. The GDP number apparently “surprised” the Street.

It’s ironic, though, that these are the same folks who have driven the Dow up 1,000 points to record levels in just a few months -- largely on the grounds that the Fed had finally stopped hiking rates. Now, they are selling on news that the economy is slowing? Of course the economy is slowing -- that was the whole idea behind the 17 interest rate hikes. What did Wall Street think was going to happen?

When it comes to this subject investors often seem to want it both ways. They bought stocks with abandon once it became clear the Fed was concerned about overtightening rates and would no longer be hiking them. But higher rates always take a bite out of growth and their full effects always lag the actual hike by 6-9 months. This means that a Fed pause last summer was being done before the full effects of the previous several rate boosts had been seen.

A slowing economy by this point was a foregone conclusion, yet when the news actually hits the hotshots downtown are taken by “surprise.” It was the Fed’s intention to slow the economy and cool some of the sizzle in the housing market, objectives which have been resoundingly accomplished. And housing still has a way to go before it is fully corrected, meaning the next couple of quarters are going to be critical in determining the Fed’s next move.

As we first predicted here back in July, we think the low economic growth being posted now is going to largely put “paid” to the inflation scare -- upwards pressure on prices should dissipate now that headline growth is waning. Indeed, anything can happen and the economy might come roaring back over the next couple of quarters. But our instincts tell us that is unlikely. If anything, the GDP numbers revive the fear that economic growth is close to slipping under the inflation rate. This, in turn, seems to be reviving the popularity of a position we have held since last spring: The Fed will cut rates sooner than many people think, probably within the second or third quarters in 2007.

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Earnings Announcements

Alpharma Inc, BE Aerospace, BlackRock Inc, Clear Channel Communications, Concurrent Computer Corporation, Diebold Inc, Grey Wolf Inc, Humana Inc, James River Group, Kronos Inc, MetLife Inc, Millennium Cell Inc, Rackable Systems Inc, Symbol Technologies Inc, Titan International, Triad Hospitals Inc, Verizon Communications Inc, and WMS Industries Inc are releasing earnings.

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Unlock Dates for October / November 2006

10/31/06 – Delek US Holdings is unlocking 10 million shares.
11/8/06 – Basin Water is unlocking 6 million shares.
11/13/06 – Restore Medical is unlocking 4 million shares.
11/14/06 – Burger King is unlocking 25 million shares.
11/21/06 – Mastercard is unlocking 61.5 million shares.
11/29/06 – Luna Innovations Inc is unlocking 3.5 million shares.

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Upgrades and Downgrades

Apache downgraded by Credit Suisse from Outperform to Neutral.

Avid Technology Inc downgraded by Kaufman Bros (Buy to Hold) and by Oppenheimer (from Buy to Neutral).

Beacon Roofing Supply downgraded by Morgan Keegan from Outperform to Market Perform.

Black & Decker downgraded by UBS from Buy to Neutral.

Boyd Gaming downgraded by CIBC World Markets from Sector Outperform to Sector Perform.

Celestica downgraded by CIBC World Markets from Sector Outperform to Sector Perform.

Deckers Outdoor downgraded by Piper Jaffray from Outperform to Market Perform.

Georgia Gulf downgraded by BB&T Capital Markets (Hold to Underweight) and by Citigroup (Hold to Sell).

Open Solutions downgraded by JP Morgan from Overweight to Neutral.

Yankee Candle downgraded by Matrix Research from Hold to Sell.

@Road upgraded by First Albany from Buy to Strong Buy.

Boeing upgraded by Matrix Research from Hold to Strong Buy.

Charles Schwab upgraded by Prudential from Neutral to Overweight.

Deckers Outdoor upgraded by Cowen & Company from Neutral to Outperform.

Getty Images upgraded by Matrix Research from Hold to Buy.

Tim Hortons upgraded by Goldman Sachs from Neutral to Buy.

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Quote of the Day:

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